Refishowcase Business & Finance

Oil prices fell in Asian trade Thursday (7 / 1) after reaching a high level in 14 months on the trade last night supported the weakening dollar, analysts said.

Futures contract for New York’s main oil, light sweet crude February delivery fell 44 cents to 82.74 dollars per barrel. U.S. benchmark oil price rose to a high level of 83.52 dollars on Wednesday, its highest price since October 9, 2009.

While the oil price Brent North Sea crude for delivery in February also fell 39 cents to a position 81.50 dollars a barrel.

Winter throughout the northern hemisphere is also one other factor pushing oil prices but investors Thursday to evaluate any signs of weakening energy demand in the United States, the world’s biggest oil user, analysts said.

Weekly reports the Department of Energy (DoE) United States, Wednesday, showed that crude oil reserves rose 1.3 million barrels in the week ended January 1 and then, even the expected fall of 300,000 barrels.

Distilled oil reserves – including heating fuel and diesel oil – fell 300,000 barrels in the week, far below the average forecast analysts fell 1.8 million barrels in the middle of winter in the United States throughout the region.

“Where inventory statistics are ‘bearish’,” said Tony Nunan, risk manager for Mitsubishi Corp.. based in Tokyo.

Nunan added that several factors including geopolitical concerns following the terrorist bomb in Yemen on Christmas day of Northwest Airlines flight and the various tensions between the United States and Iran will also have an impact on oil prices

Date 17-28 October 2009, the author had the opportunity to visit Japan. Apart from being a media comparative study of economic policy, this activity is also intended to exchange information on recent macroeconomic developments in each country.

There are several financial institutions in Japan that became a major such as the Department of Finance (Japan Ministry of Finance), Central Bank (Bank of Japan), Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo Stock Exchange), Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tokyo Commodity Exchange), Tokyo Stock Exchange Money Market (Tokyo Financial Exchange), and some institutions international think tank in Tokyo.

In general, it can be concluded that today’s Japanese equivalent position yourself (counterpart) in economic relations with Indonesia. Japan, also considered the position of Indonesia is increasingly important and strategic good in the context of bilateral relations RI-Japan economic and in the context of multilateral or international economics. There are several things that cause this view of Japan. First, Indonesia is considered able to maintain economic stability as well in the middle of rush current global economic crisis today.

As is known, since 2007 in which the crisis began to be detected until the quarter II-2009, Indonesia’s economy continued to grow positively and can continue to expand, albeit in a relatively declining trend. In 2007 and 2008, the economy grew respectively by 6.3 percent (yoy) and 6.1 percent (yoy), while the Second-quarter 2009 was recorded at 4.0 percent (yoy). Of course, this is a separate achievement for Indonesia because at the same time, many countries – not least developed countries – it was under pressure and a weakening economy in crisis.

Second-quarter 2009 for example, contraction and negative growth is still happening in Singapore (-3.5 per cent), South Korea (- 2.5 per cent), Hong Kong (-3.8 per cent), Malaysia (-3.9 per cent ), Thailand (-4.9 percent), and including Japan itself (-6.4 percent). In addition to indicators of economic growth (GDP growth), Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability is also reflected in the trend rate of inflation and interest rates are likely to continue to decline.

Meanwhile, financial markets, Indonesia’s economic improvement can be seen from the JCI that on October 6, 2009 has been appreciates by 86.52 percent during 2009 or the best second place after China’s index rose by 90.65 percent. Then, still pouring foreign net buying in the stock market and government securities (SUN), and the balance of payments surplus has also encouraged the appreciation of rupiah exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves led to a safer position, which is back through the level of $ 60 billion in September 2009 for USD62 , 29 billion.

Secondly, the success of Indonesia in the 2009 General Election held in safe, orderly, and smoothly. Unwittingly, the success of Election 2009 has increased the positive image of Indonesia in the eyes of Japan, especially in terms of democratization and the creation of political stability. This is so important to Japan as a nation of investors, Negeri Sakura is necessarily see political stability as one of nonfinancial factors are very important in investing.

In addition, the re-election Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono led a means also indicates the continuity of economic development in the next five years, is considered to be strong for the Indonesian capital in running the acceleration of economic development in the future. Third, the inclusion of Indonesia in the forum Group-20 (G-20) as the sole representative of ASEAN are considered to have special meaning for the Japanese. The reason is, Indonesia is considered to represent the voice of ASEAN that is currently used as a network is important for Japan in marketing their products and in establishing other economic cooperation. Keep in mind, Japan, South Korea, and China are the three big countries listed as producers and suppliers of various products, especially automotive and electronics to various destination countries.

As a result of the crisis that has weakened the demand for developed countries, forcing these countries to find new markets and ASEAN is seen as a potential market. Therefore, these three countries competing in the middle of fighting over market share of ASEAN countries, especially Indonesia as the largest population reached 230 million orang.Tentu, the inclusion of Indonesia to the G-20 made for the Japanese momentum in economic negotiations in order to expand into the ASEAN market.

Economic Reform

Fourth, in addition to the three factors above, other important factors that increase the ranking of Indonesia in the eyes of Japan is implementing economic reforms. As is known, since 2003 Indonesian economic reforms initiated by deregulation in the financial sector with the birth of the state Act (Act) 17/2003 on State Finance, Law 1 / 2004 on State Treasury, and Law 15/2004 on the Inspection Management and Accountability State Finance replied.

Currently, ongoing economic reforms and is realized through the restructuring of the Ministry of Finance, modernization of tax offices, customs, and treasury offices, provision of remuneration, performance evaluation, and implementation efficiency of spending. Indonesia’s economic reform momentum seemed to be important for Japan because at the same time Japan was the economic reforms. Economic reform in Japan was marked by two fundamental things that (i) the establishment of the Financial Supervisori Agency (FSA) in June 1998 and has now switched its name to Financial Services Agency and (ii) the establishment of the National Strategy Board and the Administrative Reform Council in September 2009.

Of course, with the economic reform agenda, expected to improve the economic performance of individual countries could well strengthen the economic cooperation between the two. Basic design of economic cooperation in the form of RI-Japan economic partnership agreement (EPA) also has been signed on August 20, 2007.

For the record, the author believed in the next few years Indonesia’s position will become increasingly important for Japan. This is because, in essence the basic capital of economic development is large enough and the next five years is an appropriate momentum for Indonesia to carry out economic acceleration.