Peasants in the village of Karang Anom, Kecamatan Tanjung Bintang, Lampung Selatan, Rabu (16 / 4), to harvest rice. In the past week, the price of dry grain harvest in Lampung high observed, approximately Rp 2200 per kg. The high grain prices make farmers not to sell grain directly, but keep it to fulfill their daily needs.
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JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Consumers feel confident that inflation will rise in the next six months. Based on survey results of consumer confidence index, an index which measures consumer sentiment on inflation level increased from 181.8 to 183.6 in November became December 2009.

The survey was conducted Danareksa Research Institute (DRI) published in Jakarta, Tuesday (5/1/2010). Previously, Head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced Rusman Heriawan, Indonesia recorded the lowest inflation for the last ten years in 2009, which is 2.78 percent.

According to DRI’s Chief Economist Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, an increase in inflation next six months largely due to seasonal factors due to rising prices of goods and services.

“Toward the Christmas celebrations and New Year, demand for food, food, and clothing are increasing,” said Purbaya. In June, annual inflation is expected to be in the range of 5 percent.

Nevertheless, clear Purbaya, to December 2009, the price increase does not seem as great as usually happens in December last year that the number of consumers who are concerned about the price movement is reduced.

Legal certainty

Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the government’s ability to perform his duties continued to weaken in the survey in December.

After falling in the previous survey, the index of consumer confidence in government (IKKP) fell back by 5.56 percent to 104.6 in December, which is the lowest level in nearly a year past.

It IKKP declining mainly due to the decline in consumer confidence in the ability of governments in creating legal certainty.

Based on survey results of DRI in December 2009, consumer confidence increased again because consumers feel the economic situation is better today.

Consumer confidence index (IKK) rose 0.7 percent to 89.1 in December, which is the highest level in four months. The increase in IKK was also driven by reduced consumer fears of rising prices of basic foodstuffs.

Purbaya explained, currently only 53.8 percent of consumers surveyed expressed their concerns over the issue price of basic foodstuffs.

The two components that make up the IKK increased in December. Component that shows the current situation, the present situation index (ISS), rose by 1.1 percent to 72.7 in December as consumers give a better assessment of current economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the component that shows the state IKK future expectations index (IE), rose by 0.5 percent to 101.3. The increase in IE shows the public’s optimism about the prospects of increasing the family income.

Consumers plan to buy durable goods declined slightly in December after reaching its highest level in four years in November.

The proportion of consumers who plan to buy durable goods in the next 6 months fell to 27.5 percent from 29.0 percent in November.

However, Purbaya said, consumer interest for buying durable goods is still at a high level.

Consumer confidence survey using 1700 samples from Indonesia household survey of six areas. In doing research on the economic movement, one of the tools used by DRI are the indicators of early warning, including a survey on consumer confidence.

This survey, said Purbaya, using face-to-face interview method. The sample for this national survey has been selected in accordance with the statistical methodology to represent the character, demographic, and economic conditions accurately consumer Indonesia.

Quality control survey that meets strict international standards. DRI, which was established in 1999, is a nonprofit research institute

This was revealed by a spokesman Boediono, Yopie Hidayat, told reporters after a closed meeting held at the Vice Presidential Palace, at Jalan Medan Merdeka Utara, Jakarta, Tuesday (26/1/2010).

Four of the first policy, development of infrastructure such as roads, ports, and railways to improve connectivity between regions in Indonesia.

Yopie said infrastructure development is one of the main targets of development to create the domestic market. “Learning from the 2008 economic crisis and we can not just depend on exports,” he said.

The second focus is the implementation of governance is good or good corporate governance to support the investment climate. One of them by aligning government regulations made that no more obstacles in the investment.

In addition, Boediono also explained about the government intervention in the economy through various programs directed toward the poor.

For example, direct cash assistance (BLT), the program hopes families and national programs of community empowerment independent. “The last Vice President also expressed about the increase in human resources,” said Yopie.

However, there is no talk of numbers that will be implanted investment by businessmen from the U.S.. “Because this is the VP we only talk about the general course. Problem government policy in the future,” he said.

The meeting which took place in the Vice Presidential Palace was attended President of the US-Indonesia Business Council Alexander C Feldman and United States Ambassador to Indonesia Cameron R Hume. And several businessmen from the U.S. representative of Time Warner, Intel, and Monsanto

This reflects investor confidence in the stability of recovery into the first quarter-2010, 74 percent of investors in Indonesia is optimistic the economy would improve and 43 percent of investors think that the Composite Index (JCI) will increase. An average of 7.9 percent of investors think positively about the U.S. economy (the U.S.) to decide on investments and the trend is expected to continue during 2010.

These results as issued during Ing party-IV quarter 2009, through a written statement received okezone, in Jakarta, Tuesday (26/1/2010). This survey report also clearly indicate that investors in Indonesia have been anticipated economic recovery in 2010 with a series of government policies conducive to the economy and investment.

While 78 percent of investors see the U.S. economy as the motor of the world economy while 70 percent see China as an economic motor in Asia 50 percent of investors expect inflation will continue to increase while 53 percent of investors predict interest rates will rise in the first quarter-2010.

Furthermore Ing ituI also reported, the global financial services group, today released survey data quarterly ING Investor Sentiment Index. These guidelines indicate a trend that continues to move upward on investor sentiment in Indonesia with an increase of 4.6 percent to 137 in the third quarter of 2009 IV-131 in the third quarter-2009, until it reaches the highest level since the survey was introduced in the third quarter-2007 . Index also showed a high growth of 26 percent of the 109 level by the fourth quarter-2008.

Responding to the survey results, the President Director of PT ING Securities Indonesia Dhanny Cahyadi, said investor confidence in Indonesia showed a high increase from 96 in the first quarter-2009 to 137 by the fourth quarter-2009. Significant increase, indicating the level of investor confidence is high for Indonesia despite the challenges of the global economic crisis in 2009.

“While President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and his team had to deal with some political controversy during the fourth quarter of 2009, the survey shows that investors do not only focus on domestic political issues alone,” he said.

Index in Indonesia shows consistency with the positive investor sentiment in other markets in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan). For Asia (excluding Japan), the ING Investor Sentiment Index shows an increase of 101 percent to 147 by the fourth quarter of 2009-73-IV quarter 2008, and a stable increase of 3.5 percent from 142 in the third quarter-2009, which indicates that investors in Asia to prepare themselves to meet the market activity and that aggressive investment in 2010, after seeing the positive performance of financial markets and local economic recovery in 2009.

“The survey results also showed the highest value of investment sentiment since the Index was introduced in the 2007 third quarter, with increasing optimism index in the category,” he concluded.

IN the last few days turns Jakarta experienced blackouts. Whatever the cause, such extinction reduces comfort residents.

For industry, this kind of extinction big impact because of their production capacity to be disturbed. A simple example of a company’s ice cream, every time there was a power cut, it took two days to be able to produce again having to clean the production equipment, prepare for the ready production temperature, and so on. The company’s production capability to be stagnating, while the high increase in demand.

Likewise for the household industry. A small sewing business told me that power outages cause their ability to produce the seam, thereby decreasing order completion may be delayed. Information that becomes inadequate, also affected the quality of stitches. These developments mark how crucial the effort to fulfill the energy needs for our country.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla made the appropriate steps to encourage investment in large scale electricity supply sector. Programyang first crash about 10 thousand megawatts (MW) began running and in the coming years we will enjoy the results. This program followed by a second well about 10 thousand MW. Of course, this program should be followed the next expansion program. Why is that?

Phenomenon Economic Rise

I think this latest development has become common knowledge about the economic power possessed Indonesia. The fact is among the major countries, the source of world economic growth turned out to be in China, India, and Indonesia, followed by other countries are.

This development will be faster in the coming years. How big is Indonesia’s economic growth rate, this is often still a matter of debate. Years ago in 2008, Indonesia’s economic growth reached 6.1 percent. Meanwhile, the nominal GDP growth reached 25.4 persen.Perbedaan is too large, which is hard to explain by our inflation (including the GDP deflator) convinced me that economic growth in 2008 it was reported too low (understated). From various sides, the year of 2008 was a year ago it was unusual (an exceptional year).

Growth of agricultural commodities (including rice self-sufficiency even experienced back) and mining and manufacturing industry experienced a very high jump. Production of cars, motorcycles, electronic goods, consumer goods, as well as other products tinggi.Rasanya growth is difficult to understand that progress will only result in growth of 6.1 percent, even lower than the previous year. 2009 This year it also has the same similarities. The growth of manufacturing industry is still tinggi.Sementara and motor vehicle sales experienced a smaller decline than previously feared.

The growth rate of 6.1 percent in 2008 to last year might satisfy the various parties who are skeptical about our economy. However, if economic growth was actually higher than reported, this will greatly affect the planning of things, including the preparation of our electricity capacity.

If the economic growth of eight percent was, for example, reporting the economic growth of six percent will lead to how many thousands of megawatts of power that ultimately was not prepared because it is felt not necessary. Yet this need actually exists. Finally, a phenomenon that was the difficulty of asking for a new connection or request additional electric capacity, as happened today.

Middle Class and Energy Needs

If the macro economic growth would lead to increased energy demand, the level of today’s economy will create demand greater energy compared to previous years.

I feel the elasticity of electricity demand to increase economic growth will be even greater in the coming years. Why is that? As I often review, in today’s conditions, the number of middle class in Indonesia, more and more big. In the year 2009, the number around 30 million orang.Di 2015 I predict (based on AC Nielsen’s criteria) the number of our middle class will reach about 60 million people.

The increase in the number of middle-class demand for electricity will rise much higher than before. In this case the sale of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and so will experience a great improvement. If within one year of AC sales reached 1 million units, while demand for electricity per unit of AC for 500 watts, the sale will generate electricity demand of about 500 megawatts. If the sale of AC increases, the electricity demand will increase too.

Therefore, in the case of electricity supply planning, hard work really needs to be done to meet future needs and to meet the unmet needs in these years. The government would need to seriously help PLN expansion both in terms of electricity production as well as financing networks. As a business entity, PLN will greatly inconvenience their own financing to do it all.

If PLN finally unable to do business as demand increased, that will happen is that economic growth below the optimal level that could happen. Commercialization of PLN’s will eventually intersect with the pricing policy is more directed at the level of PLN economics. Such pricing policies on the one side will put the brakes on electricity demand for the things that really are not essential, but at the same time will provide a higher capacity for PLN to achieve financial independence so as to provide more electricity.

I think such situations should be considered a very mature that we finally have an energy-producing companies that can develop on its own and can better contribute to the economic development of this country.

“After having contractions for several years, economic activity seems to be stable in the United States (U.S.) and abroad. The prospect for growth in the near future will be better,” said Central Bank Governor of the U.S. (the Fed) Ben S Bernanke told the banking world in a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, Friday (21 / or local time yesterday pm.

Bernanke’s statement is more meaningful than the Fed’s statement last weekend that mentioned the economic activity stops to stumble. Bernanke said U.S. economic conditions and other countries in the world shows a signal recovery from the abyss of recession because of the improvement of financial markets. However, he warned that economic growth will experience a slowdown in the foreseeable future.

According to Bernanke, although the fear of collapse of the financial sector to shrink, the crisis is still a challenge, especially the credit sector has not recovered.

“In many types of financial markets around the world, financial institutions and many household business continually experienced many difficulties gaining access to credit,” he said.

He continued, because of these factors, the economic recovery will be relatively slow at first. However, it will improve in the next stage, which is shown by decreasing the number of unemployed.

U.S. expected to show positive growth in the third quarter after a contraction in four consecutive quarters. France and Germany which is Europe’s largest economy was growing again in the second quarter. So does Japan’s economic re-grow for the first time in the last year.

Bernanke’s speech to the forum also contains many policy measures important in avoiding further deterioration.

Given the condition of two years back when the economic crisis, Bernanke said, without an aggressive policy and the balance from governments around the world, the economic panic in late October and will continue to increase throughout the world financial system would be very risky.

“Although we have avoided the worst, there are still other challenges,” Bernanke said that choosing to take the radical step when facing the biggest economic contraction in the world, including the desperate fix almost zero interest rates and pumping billions of dollars into the financial system.

He continued, his department must work together to ensure sustainable economic recovery. Disorotinya one that is important to build the framework of the new financial regulations as a lesson from the crisis and prevent similar incidents happening again. Bernanke said, in the U.S., the use of liquidity facilities the Fed has dropped sharply compared to early last year.

“Signals in the market shows weak liquidity pressures and market conditions return to normal,” he said.

According to him, the key is to overcome the crisis with liquidity risk management to ensure capital adequacy, credit markets, and risk management for the unhealthy financial condition. The same event this year was more lively than a year ago. At that time, Bernanke must strive to overcome various problems in the financial markets.

One week after the event was held last year, investment bank Lehman Brothers collapse. The next U.S. government to inject billions of dollars to rescue American International Group. In Wyoming eventdi that, in addition to Bernanke, speaking part of the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. He reminded that did not appear excessive assumption that the world economy was back to normal.

“We still have to do many things,” he said, adding, would be a disaster if the policy holder in the world did not learn from the crisis.

Statement of Ben Bernanke about the U.S. economic recovery conditions are able to increase number of the leading index in the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones rose 155 points and closed at 9500 levels. The Nasdaq composite index rose 31.68, or up 1.6% to 2020.90. Index The Standard & Poor? S 500 jumped 18.76, or 1.9% to 1026.13.

Record Houses

Coincided with Bernanke’s statement, news emerged that increasingly strengthen crisis situation has ended.

Based on reports the National Association of Realtors (the national association of real estate brokers) in the U.S., existing-home sales (homes that previously owned or built a house for a month before or also known as the home Resales / old house) rose in July, up four months in a row, for the first time in five years.

Existing-home sales jumped 7.2% in July to an annual periodic adjustments 5.24 million units in July, the biggest sale since the data began to be compiled in 1999. These sales exceeded the consensus average sales projections 5 million units.

“The report estimates that more than has been pushing the action in the stock market to buy,” Briefing.com analysts said in a note to clients.

“The report provides support that the housing market may have risen in terms of sales,” they said.

Economists said the disaster recovery in the housing sector, after the crisis erupted, is the key to attracting the world’s largest economy out of recession.

Clothing by January 2010 at 0.20 percent a deflation, or a decline in the index of 119.01 in December 2009 to 118.77 in January 2010.

“Clothing in January a deflation, although the 66 cities experienced none of deflation, especially of gold, orange start cheap, chicken meat and laying the race,” BPS chief said Rusman Heriawan, told reporters during press conference, the BPS Building, Jakarta, Monday (1/2/2010).

He further, a subgroup that experienced deflation in January 2010, the subgroup of personal goods and other clothing 1.16 percent. Whereas subgroups of inflation, the subgroup of men clothing 0.48 percent; subgroup of women clothing 0.22 percent, and subgroups of children clothing 0.24 percent.

This group in January 2010 as a whole to contribute 0.02 percent deflation. The dominant commodity deflation contribution is 0.04 percent of gold jewelry. While commodity inflation contributed 0.01 percent is an umbrella

During December 2009, the commodity price rises include: Exports of liquefied natural gas (5.19 percent), sugar (4.52 percent), palm oil (3.28 percent), and coal exports (2.76 per cent ). While the price decline, among others: vegetables (5.71 percent), chicken (3.26 percent), crude oil exports (2.15 percent), crude oil imports (1.58 percent), and fresh shrimp (1.92 percent).

Candidate Chief Executive Officer of Standard Chartered Indonesia Tom Aaker expect when Asia, including Indonesia, could lead the recovery of global economic situation in 2010.

“Indonesia has shown strong performance during the global recession recently and appeared as a member of the G-20 which had the third fastest growth in 2009,” said Tom, when the Standard Chatered Bank Wealth on Wealth 2010, at Hotel Mulia, Senayan, Jakarta, Tuesday (2/2/2010).

Therefore, Standard Chartered Indonesia revealed keoptimistisannya against the Indonesian recovery is very controlled.

This is because the government pegged the growth domestic product growth (GDP) which has increased and will reach 5.5 percent in 2010, and seven percent in 2012 which was considered to be fulfilled.

Country Head, Consumer Banking, Standard Chartered Indonesia Lani Darmawan, also committed to assisting clients through a challenging period in 2009 and will continue to provide support to customers.

“We will continue to give full support to our customers in order to reap maximum benefit in 2010 is important for customers to understand the range of products and financial services that we have,” said Lani.

Explained, the bank must be able to be more than just a provider of financial services but be the right partner for their customers.

Senior researcher Development Research Center, the think-tank institutions China Cabinet, Ba Shusong claimed, Beijing may precede the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) menaikkansukubungaacuanuntuk combat inflation in the country. High inflation makes people worry about withdrawing money from banks for investment in stocks and property so that the potential for manipulation of assets occurs.

“But, not yet decided whether to raise rates only a deposit or deposits and interest on loans,” said Ba told Reuters yesterday. Currently interest rates are one-year loan at 5.31 level persen.Bank Central China (PBOC) controls the amount of deposit interest and loans. Many say that the economy will not PBOC raised interest rates before the Fed do so because higher interest rates in China could lead to surge in the flow of funds.

However, Ba believes the entry of foreign funds was not as great as expected if the increased borrowing costs. The high interest rates will cool the heating in the property sector. Economists predict CPI rose 1.9 percent during 2009 and predicted inflation spike will occur in the coming months.

PBOC researchers believe Jinpu Jiao, inflationary pressures rather than as the main trigger higher interest rates in the quarter I/2010. Problem yuan, Ba rate is still much debate among researchers whether China should let its exchange rate to appreciate (rise) or tidak.Pemerintah China is still careful to change the yuan peg policy. Beijing China export rate is still weak so that changes can membayakan policy.

Brazil Endangered Asset Bubbles

Speculative asset bubble concerns moving from China to Brazil recently strengthened. Speculation has made stock prices and exchange rates in Brazil experienced jumps. Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) issued a warning to Brazil as a developing country markets potentially experiencing asset bubbles.

“There is danger of an asset bubble in Brazil or India. We must be careful of these dangers. This is a real threat,” said Chairman of the OECD Angel Gurria. Gurria statement comes as investors awareness of these dangers. During January investors pulled their investments from stock market Sao Paulo for $ 500 million.

Bovespa index had tumbled 4.7 percent during Januari.Ini is the biggest turning point since the Brazilian stock market has rebounded with the recovery of the weakening global economy. Real exchange rate weakened to the lowest position since 2 September 2009. During the nine days of real fell to 1.885 per dolar.Pelemahan was lowered profit last year as a real rose 33 percent on the dollar.

However, Brazilian government says not worried about this threat. “We’re not worried about this because we have foreign exchange reserves (dollars) in large numbers,” said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega. The Government of Brazil thought through a real devaluation, exports become more competitive. Mantega Brazil earlier economic forecast to grow 5.2 percent this year after zero growth last year.

Memasnya tension on the investment climate in Brazil is triggered by changes in China policy. China-Brazil is a major economic link for the State Panda is the largest trading partner with $ 42 billion in total transactions in 2009. As we all know, Beijing has started a tight monetary policies to cool China’s economy started overheating.

New policy is intended to ease the manipulation of property and stock markets. Some in China worry about the manipulation can destroy the global economic recovery. China new policy is a direct impact on Brazilian exports, particularly in metal products in China and profitable pertanian.Perubahan dollars for other world currencies weaken.

Last year, the U.S. government recorded a deficit of $ 1, 4 trillion, equivalent to 9.9 percent of GDP.

President Barack Obama burden increases with the gloomy predictions. As a result, the government stressed the importance of Obama’s middle pressing expenses. He also was looking for stimulus measures to boost the current economic improvement.

According to sources on Capitol Hill, restrictions projected deficit will reach USD700 billion. 2013 financial calculations are ultimately going to crawl up to $ 1 trillion at the end of the decade.

Obama will submit a list of expenditures for financing in 2011 which will begin on October 1 until September 30, next year.

Obama tried to overcome the deficit reduction and also the number of unemployed increased by the tax credit proposal. This step is done to encourage employers to receive workers and tax breaks for middle class families.

Obama previously criticized by the Republican Party, because too much to spend. In the accountability report he said, would bring the country out of the “big financial hole.”

According to estimates from the Office of Management and Budget of the White House these holes even bigger.

Financial estimates in 2010 that ended on September 30 next, significantly higher than expected non-partisan Congressional Budget Office for USD1, 35 trillion.

Although there are differences, both predict that the deficit will still increase nearly 10 percent of gross domestic product, the amount that has not seen since World War II, when measured as a percentage of the economy.

Freezing of Three-Year Program Is Not Enough

In the budget, Obama proposed three-year freeze on domestic programs to save $ 20 billion in 2011 and USD250 billion for the next decade.

However, it is not sufficient to reduce the deficit to three percent of GDP is considered sufficient for the economists.

According to estimates, the deficit will come down after the improving economy, with a range averaged 4.5 percent of GDP for decades to come.

China, as the largest shareholder in the U.S. financial request the State Government to set Uncle Sam’s financial state.

Recession that began in December 2007, making American financial conditions torn. However, the American gradually claimed if the economy has entered a recovery phase.

Vice Chairman of the API Ade Sudradjat said, since 1998 and in the monetary crisis hit Indonesia, textile and garment sector began labeled as high-risk sector until now. So that makes many textile businesses to find alternative financing from foreign banks including Singapore in the form of export credit and others.

“So it better to seek funding from banks in foreign countries. Duit know it’s not nationalism. Yes we are looking for a solution to the problem of relying on here,” he said when contacted detikFinance, Tuesday (2/2/2010)

Actually Ade said, all types of manufacturing industry regardless of its form must have a risk, but national banks should address these issues more wisely. No matter what he said, the textile sector can absorb many workers whose numbers can drive the national economy.

“Now show me the same, which sectors are not at risk, all significant risks are minimized,” he said.

Although he admitted for the type of textile and garment industry is based on the domestic market, with the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) will be under pressure. As for sector-based export sector it is still very strong relative to the pressure of free trade.

“For example, Indonesian textile exports in 2009 amounted to U.S. $ 9.8 billion, was down from the year 2008 amounted to U.S. $ 10.1 billion. Tapikan still generate foreign exchange, is not,” he said.

Based on the survey quoted banking from the site of Bank Indonesia (BI), over-fourth quarter of 2009, the manufacturing industry, especially textile and garment sub-sectors are still avoided for the distribution of banking credit.

Bank considers still weak demand from foreign textile and plan the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement in 2010 will aggravate competition in the textile industry.

Banking is still avoiding the credit for building or property sector, especially the financing for the construction of malls and apartments, due to economic conditions that have not been recovered. Investment credit so that the long-term nature of this sector is considered risky.