The dollar traded near the strongest position in over 7 months following the signal the euro countries with the largest economy was gaining momentum from the high demand for assets.

The greenback is expected to continue strengthening this week ahead of the U.S. manufacturing sector report and household purchases. Both predicted experiencing expansion. Euro also potentially weaken the yen over the issue of Greece’s budget deficit widened more and more expected.

“The data coming out this week confirms that the U.S. economy improves. Improving economic fundamentals will support the U.S. dollar,” said Koji Takeuchi, senior economist Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. of Tokyo, today.

The dollar traded at U.S. $ 1.3864 per euro at 8:06 am in Tokyo, rose from U.S. $ 1.3863 in New York last week. The dollar was at 90.12 yen from 90.27 in New York. Euro survive the weakening yen 124.96 yen from 125.13, after a touching 124.43, the weakest level since 28 April.

Manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management is at 55.5 in January. Figures above 50 indicate the existence of expansion. This recovery continued to strengthen the signal in the U.S.. Likewise, the increase in household purchases of 0.3%.

Last week, the U.S. dollar strengthened encouraged by the report the Department of Commerce regarding the increase in GDP by 5.7% per year during the October to December. The increase is the fastest in 6 years.

The strengthening of the won and the ringgit occur every day throughout the week. The appreciation continued as the impact of the Fed’s decision Open Market Committee last month that was launched yesterday, to extend the stimulus package to sustain economic recovery. Export performance of Taiwan and Malaysia is estimated to rise for two months.

“Expectations that the U.S. appears to raise rates, but invites a lot of arguments, as they are not solid recovery. Action to sell U.S. dollars occurs in response to the news and would encourage regional currencies,” said Zaki Mokhtar, head of foreign exchange spot trading on the RHB Bank Bhd Kuala Lumpur.

Won rose 0.3% to 1133 at 12:30 pm in Seoul, which had touched the highest level in 15 months of 1129.42.

Malaysian ringgit reached the highest position in 6 weeks at 3.3620, and rose 0.2% continues to 3.3710 per U.S. dollar. Philippine peso also gained 0.3% to 45.895 Taiwan dollars and increased 0.1% to NT $ 31,833.

John Lipsky senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the institution is likely to raise 2010 global growth estimate later this month, from 3.1% position.

The median estimate of economists surveyed showed exports to Taiwan in December jumped 45% from the previous year and Malaysia rose 3% for 3 months.

South Korean Won continues to strengthen for the fifth day, the longest movement in almost 4 months, along with the improvement in export performance which triggered the entry of foreign investors borong local shares.

Samsung Electronics Co., the largest semiconductor manufacturers in Asia, as well as flat screens and mobile phones, recording Fourth quarter earnings of about 3.7 trillion won (U.S. $ 3.3 billion). In fact, the same period last year, the company still suffered losses.

“South Korean Won support payments from the state improved. Despite the strengthening occurred in March 2009, but we believe it is fundamentally the won is still undervalued,” said Leong Wai Ho, an economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore.

The Bank of Korea said the interest rate policy will support economic growth even as the central bank should maintain the imbalance caused by low interest rates. According to the 14 economists surveyed, Governor Lee Seong Tae believed to hold interest rates at 7 days 7% tomorrow.

Philippine peso rose to the highest position in 16 months at 45.72 per dollar two days ago, due to speculation the U.S. dollar bond sale by the government worth U.S. $ 1.5 billion. This action sparked buying of the local currency.

“We go back to see the strengthening of the peso,” said Antonio Espedido, treasurer at China Banking Corp. in Manila.

Indonesia plans to sell bonds worth U.S. $ 4 billion, and Vietnam is looking for funds amounting to U.S. $ 1 billion.

Rupiah strengthened 0.1% to 9230 per dollar today, after yesterday rose to 1.4%. Thai Baht is also strong 0.1% to 33.14 yuan and China are not much changed at 6.8277

Asian currencies weaken, led by the South Korean won and Philippine peso against the dollar on concern China will restrict kredi to hold regional export demand.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index dropped to the lowest level during 2010 after Reuters reported several banks in China to provide cash to increase reserves. Pressure on the won continues triggered by a report that GDP fell to 0.2% in the quarter IV of 3.2% the previous period.

“Asian Currency weakens influenced China talks about the possibility of doing the tightening and asked a number of banks to raise reserve ratios again. This led to indiscriminate selling Asian currencies, the yen strengthened on the other hand,” said Joanna Tan, a regional economist Forecast Singapore Pte.

Won weakened 1.3% to 1165.50 per U.S. dollar at 2:18 pm in Seoul and had time to reach 1166.50, its lowest level this year. Peso weakened 0.5% to 46.47 and the Malaysian ringgit to be depressed 0.6% 3.4205. Rupiah also down 0.4% to 9380.

China’s central bank earlier this month the bank raised compulsory registration deposits 0.25% to 16% to keep credit growth and prevent asset bubbles in shares and property.

Reports of credit tightening reduces the demand for shares in China market. This causes the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%. While the external market is also down.

On the other hand, the yen and U.S. dollar gained on the euro. The yen strengthened to 126.44 per euro in Tokyo, from 127.75 in New York yesterday. U.S. dollar increased to USS1, 4092 per euro.

Taiwan dollar strengthened encouraged by government reports of a record increase in manufacturing production. The data that was launched this month showed Taiwan exports rise in line with the decline in the unemployment rate. Achievement was raised currencies to its highest level since September 2008.

“Taiwan dollar appreciation as a result of moving the entry of hot money into Asia, including Taiwan. The central bank is always in the market to overcome the high volatility,” said Tarsicio Tong, forex dealers Union Bank of Taiwan in Taipei.

South Korea’s economic growth slowed during the quarter IV exceeded the median estimate of the economy. Kim Myung-Kee, the Bank of Korea officials, said the slowdown that occurred in October through December is only temporary adjustment does not affect the national growth momentum.

“Global economic recovery is still in process and should be recognized, not as smoothly and as quickly as expected. So the market is still moving volatile during the quarter I,” said Lindawati Susanto, head of FX Trade PT Bank Resona Perdania in Jakarta.

Singapore dollar weakened 0.4% to S $ 1.4041 per U.S. dollar, Thai baht depressed 0.2% to 33.02. China Yuan unchanged at 6.8269

: The yen weakened the currency 16 main partner countries associated with the prospect of Federal Reserve Governor Ben S. Bernanke back to his post for the second period and continued economic recovery in the country in the world’s largest.

The yen weakened ATS euro for the first time in 8 days after President Barack Obama received assurances from the Senate office about the survival Bernanke. U.S. dollar weakened against a number of currencies with higher yields following a report by economists estimate that home sales in the U.S. fell in December.

“Slowly kondiri improved during Bernanke served. So far, the Senate gave support. It has the potential to raise the sentiment, ’said Robert Rennie, head of currency research Westpac Banking Corp. Sydney.

The yen weakened to 127.31 per euro at 9:11 pm in Tokyo, from 126.98 in New York on January 22.

The median estimate of economists say home sales in the U.S. fell to 6 million per year in December, from 6.54 million in November. National Association of Realtors will publish the data today.

According to the 91 economists surveyed, the Fed would keep overnight interest rates between 0% and 0.25% on January 27.

This idea is similar to what the European Union when they enforce the euro in mid-2002. The goal is the continent’s economy is more solid yellow and supports the global post-crisis recovery process. This idea was conveyed former Minister of Finance and the Japan International Cooperation Eisuke Sakakibara at a forum in Singapore yesterday.

According to him, the implementation of a common currency may have no more hot issues discussed, but it’s possible to rethink the idea. Only, he said, the talks will take several decades due to common perceptions among countries in Asia.

“But it might be time to think about how Asia’s economic integration is gradually approaching the European level,” Sakakibara said in Singapore yesterday.

According to Sakakibara, this idea triggered a global economic slowdown due to the worst financial crisis since more than 70 years ago it was.

Moreover, he said, many analysts who said that Asia will lead the growth in the recovery period. In addition, countries are key to Asia’s growth was also considered to reduce trade barriers and offer business network procedures better. One example, he said, is the agreement between the countries in Southeast Asia (ASEAN) with China which began January 1 lalu.Kerja as it makes an open market for 1.7 billion people in the region.

Sakakibara is currently a professor at a university in Tokyo also stated that the use of policy references a common currency that will use its own version, different from the concept of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Given the scale of potential economic growth in Asia, Sakikabara suggested that such a reserve fund established with funds to strengthen the event of a crisis. This proposal is based on the trends that occurred recently, where the governments of the countries in Asia as a backup compact closed devisanya ratarata about $ 5 billion.

“Imagine if we use only 5% of the total funds that will be collected at least approximately USD250 billion, enough to form a common fund,” said Sakakibara. According to him, now it’s time to start and trying to coordinate exchange rate policy and monetary policy uniformity. However, the plan will not be easily assessed since there is a possibility does not like the United States (U.S.) for fear of discouraging that in fact the influence of the IMF diboncengi Western interests. Other countries also are designing the formation of currency is the Middle East region.

Rich countries that the oil was even further by the fact the union agreed to the establishment of Arab currencies in December. Countries that joined in the deal include Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and these same Arab Saudi.Kerja incorporated in the Country Cooperation of the Gulf (GCC) and will form a special central bank and the Gulf currencies immediately issue a special

“Besides this the end of the month, many of which cover books. Well, it secured the position,” said Head of Bank Niaga Trading Kriswijayanto Kurniawan Emanuel, the Legal, in Jakarta, Friday (30/11/2007).

Signals United States Central Bank to lower interest rates again become an arena of speculation speculators. Currently the Fed rate at 4.75 per cent position, the lowered 50 basis points on 19 mid-September 2007.

While oil prices in the markets of New York Mercantile Exchange after low tide level to USD90 per barrel, is now back up to USD94 per barrel level.

As reported by the AFP, Saturday (28/11/2009), he added that the Japanese yen currency trading approximately 85 yen, and this is the lowest level since the mid-1990s.

In addition, the strengthening yen is not made to immediately intervene Fujii currency markets, as he did last time in March 2004.

He also added if the strengthening yen is rising rapidly only one side and dangerous to the economy. The Japanese government was closely watching the current currency fluctuations.

“We will take appropriate action to deal with the strengthening yen is moving this mess,” he said.

On the other hand, the dollar sank below 85 yen in early trading in Asia, which then bounces back and moves to a position slightly 85.88 yen in Tokyo.

Fujii said Japan will discuss with the financial authorities of the United States and Europe if required. For information, the Japanese economy crawls out of a deep recession because of his rebounds despite strengthening export a stronger yen threatens the competitiveness of Japanese exporters

While the dollar index, which is an indicator of the strength of the dollar against six major currencies the world, reaching the highest in 13 months to 81.159.

Attenuation is due to changes in investor focus to banking problems in Europe. Investors are also wondering if there will be a bailout policy (bailout) as done in the United States.

As is known, on Friday last week the U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding package of USD700 billion rescue for the financial sector in the country. This step provides an opportunity for the U.S. Treasury to buy illiquid assets from banks and credit flows are expected to be flowing again.

“Euro currently under selling pressure due to disappointment, after Europe failed to follow a policy of bailouts in the United States,” said a currency trader in Japan was quoted by The Guardian, Monday (6/10/2008).

“There are hopes the bailout plan does the same, causing frustration for the European banking sector,” he said.

Yen Menguat

Japanese investors prefer to be preached to sell the euro and Australian dollar and buying yen. Action investors helped push the single currency of Europe was plunged to its lowest for 13 months against the dollar.

The yen climbed to reach the highest number since May 2006 against the euro and Australian dollar. The Japanese currency climbed to 142.97 against the euro in opening trade. At last week’s trading, the yen closed at 145.10 against the euro rate.

While the Australian dollar, the yen rose to 80.72, better than the close of trade on Friday last week the number 81.67

In the world economic situation is prolonged uncertainty, each country concerned should reduce the number of variables economic wild. One variable is the exchange rate or exchange value of national currency against foreign currencies, especially against the U.S. dollar (U.S.) that still prevail as the world currency.

In economics, particularly international trade and finance, known as fixed exchange rates (fixed exchange rate) and floating exchange rate (floating).

Both these systems have a exchange rate of each modification. For example there are currency board arrangement, there is also a fixed exchange rate, but with the band (up and down) that limited.

Indonesia has plenty of experience with exchange rate regimes. Never run a fixed exchange rate, fixed exchange rate with a band that gradually loosened, and full of floating exchange rates it is today.

Theoretically, floating exchange rate management means entirely left to the mechanism or market forces. But in practice the central bank secretly or openly often intervene to tame the exchange rate.

These interventions often fail even with the expensive cost. In addition, in some instances, the central bank intervention is actually stimulating the speculators in the money market to more vigorous play. Each exchange rate system would have advantages and disadvantages of each. The question is which is more suitable to choose the time (period) and a particular region (country) specific.

For countries with international economic scale is relatively small, such as Indonesia, the world trade economy with this uncertainty, the exchange rate is a more appropriate option worth considering or remember things as follows.

First, fixed exchange rates provide more certainty in the calculation of the price / cost for exporters and importers. Second, facilitate the preparation of Budget, particularly the budget posts related to foreign currencies such as oil and gas revenues and the payment of foreign debt following the interest.

Third, do not bother with the rise and fall of the rupiah which can disrupt the economy in general and the export-import and inflation in particular. We also often see fluctuations in world currencies are actually difficult to read or explain why economically.

In other words, exchange rate fluctuations is not reasonable that better reflect the power of market speculators who profit by hunting menggonjang-ganjingkan exchange. Fourth, the desire to reduce speculation in the forex market because every exchange dollars into foreign currency vice-versa affected exchange commission, while the rate constant. Fifth, return the primary function of money as a means of payment and store of wealth, rather than as a commodity.

Sixth, with a fixed exchange rate regime is expected to urge the owners of money using the money to invest in the real sector – not for currency speculation – in order to absorb labor. Seventh, the stability of exchange rates could also reduce the pressure group games or the politicization of the fluctuations of rupiah from the strength of domestic and foreign.

In this globalization era, fixed exchange rate regime will be more stability when the goal was followed by as many countries. Although theoretically easy to say, does not mean a fixed exchange rate policy is not at risk as a devaluation. So, if chosen the fixed exchange rate policy, should be supported with security policy package. For example, each of the export must be stored in the importer country and guaranteed valasnya purposes.

But the economic situation like now serbaliar, floating exchange rates seem much more expensive and risky as we have experienced so far. Malaysia with its fixed exchange rate policy proved more successful or at least more safe than the Indonesian economy.

Although the election fixed exchange rate regime is something very normal and is the economic sovereignty of a country, but especially for Indonesia could be extraordinary because of the many parties concerned with Indonesia, both politically and economically. This means that, in the early stages back to the idea of fixed exchange rate policy in Indonesia can be expected to get tough challenges such as Malaysia had ever experienced.

The more so that Indonesia is a country filled with foreign debt, and believe it or not in the past eleven years the main economic policies set in Washington DC.

Well, who is the holder of the economic sovereignty of Indonesia?

“It now takes one look at the balance with other global currencies. All countries acknowledge that use the U.S. dollar as global currencies are de facto not the inauguration,” he said in Jakarta yesterday.

According to Sri Mulyani, a number of countries such as China, Japan, and the Arabs who make enough to export even started looking for alternatif.Namun currency, with it, when the value of Japanese currency, yen, having strengthened against the U.S. dollar as the level of This is also realized by the Government of Japan that the dollar is necessary in the constellation of global trade and investment.

“So did the creation of a new global currency requires a process,” he said. In Indonesia, continued Finance, also has begun efforts to use alternative currencies, particularly in this region should be promoted through Asia.Hal bilateral swap arrangements with Japan and China.

Through this agreement, Indonesia does not need to buy dollars when trading with Japan and China. Transactions conducted using the Japanese currency, or China so that the pressure the U.S. dollar against the rupiah can be reduced. Efforts of countries seeking a global currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar was considered one of the main causes of the weakening currency is Uncle Sam’s country globally.

However, the foreign exchange market watchers assess Farial Anwar, the efforts to form a global currency outside the U.S. dollar will not be easy. Therefore, according to him, the role of the U.S. dollar will remain fairly dominant. He gave an example in Indonesia, most entrepreneurs only familiar with the rupiah and the dollar as a transaction.

“Even if they trade with Europe, not necessarily entrepreneurs willing to accept payment in the currency rather than U.S. dollars,” he said. In trading yesterday, the rupiah against the U.S. dollar strengthened back into Rp9.420, from the previous position Rp9.440 per U.S. dollar.

In Asian markets, the dollar was still moving after two days of varied then collapsed as the emergence of a discourse by the replacement of the U.S. dollar to trade in the Arab countries are oil. According to the University of Indonesia economist Faisal Basri, the strengthening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar will last until next year. “Rupiah currently in a position anteng Rp9.000-9500 against the U.S. dollar. We went into that zone,” he said.

Employers Worry

On the other hand, the strengthening of the rupiah has sparked fears entrepreneurs Indonesian furniture and handicrafts. “With the rapid strengthening of the rupiah, the exporters’ purchasing power would also be affected, meaning it will disrupt our export performance,” said Chairman of the Industrial Association of Indonesian Furniture and Handicraft (Asmindo) Amber Tjahyono in Jakarta yesterday for furniture and crafts business, he said, Ideally, the rupiah perched above the 10,000 range.

“But clearly, the export should be higher than imports, so I expected the rupiah at 10,000 levels down is very dangerous,” said Ambar join the government hoped to intervene to stabilize the rupiah. “That way, we will go to a more healthy situation because if the rupiah reached Rp9.000 point per dollar, then we lose.

So do not be mistaken with the strengthening of rupiah, we gain all, many of our investors are the losers. I expect the next month, the rupiah back to Rp10.500 per dollar level AS.Itu win-win solutionuntuk exports, “he said.